Global introductions and environmental impacts of freshwater megafish.

Freshwater megafish species, such as sturgeons, salmonids, carps, and catfishes, have a maximum reported weight ≥30 kg. Due to their charisma and economic value, they have been widely introduced outside of their native ranges. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of the introduction of freshwater megafish and an assessment of their environmental impacts. Of the 134 extant freshwater megafish species, 46% have been introduced to new environments, and of these, 69% have established self-sustaining alien populations. These introductions affect 59% of the world's main basins, with the USA and western Europe being particular hotspots of megafish introductions. The common carp (Cyprinus carpio) is the most widely introduced species. Using the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT and EICAT+) frameworks, we assessed the severity and type of negative and positive impacts posed by alien megafish on native species. Alien megafish caused negative impacts through nine different mechanisms, with predation being the most frequently reported mechanism, followed by herbivory and competition. Moreover, 58% of the alien megafish species with sufficient data to evaluate the severity of their impacts caused declining populations of native species, or worse, extirpations of native species populations. The positive environmental impacts of alien megafish were far less frequently documented. They include biotic interactions that benefit native species, and the provision of trophic resources or habitats. Widely introduced or extensively studied species are more likely to have documented severe impacts on native species. There is a clear trade-off between the economic benefits associated with megafish introductions and the severe adverse impacts they have on native biodiversity. Our study highlights the need for comprehensive risk assessments to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of megafish. More research and long-term monitoring schemes are required to inform management actions to protect biodiversity, particularly in the Global South.

The Correlated Beta Dose Optimisation Approach: Optimal Vaccine Dosing Using Mathematical Modelling and Adaptive Trial Design.

Mathematical modelling methods and adaptive trial design are likely to be effective for optimising vaccine dose but are not yet commonly used. This may be due to uncertainty with regard to the correct choice of parametric model for dose-efficacy or dose-toxicity. Non-parametric models have previously been suggested to be potentially useful in this situation. We propose a novel approach for locating optimal vaccine dose based on the non-parametric Continuous Correlated Beta Process model and adaptive trial design. We call this the 'Correlated Beta' or 'CoBe' dose optimisation approach. We evaluated the CoBe dose optimisation approach compared to other vaccine dose optimisation approaches using a simulation study. Despite using simpler assumptions than other modelling-based methods, we found that the CoBe dose optimisation approach was able to effectively locate the maximum efficacy dose for both single and prime/boost administration vaccines. The CoBe dose optimisation approach was also effective in finding a dose that maximises vaccine efficacy and minimises vaccine-related toxicity. Further, we found that these modelling methods can benefit from the inclusion of expert knowledge, which has been difficult for previous parametric modelling methods. This work further shows that using mathematical modelling and adaptive trial design is likely to be beneficial to locating optimal vaccine dose, ensuring maximum vaccine benefit and disease burden reduction, ultimately saving lives.

Mathematical Modelling for Optimal Vaccine Dose Finding: Maximising Efficacy and Minimising Toxicity.

Vaccination is a key tool to reduce global disease burden. Vaccine dose can affect vaccine efficacy and toxicity. Given the expense of developing vaccines, optimising vaccine dose is essential. Mathematical modelling has been suggested as an approach for optimising vaccine dose by quantitatively establishing the relationships between dose and efficacy/toxicity. In this work, we performed simulation studies to assess the performance of modelling approaches in determining optimal dose. We found that the ability of modelling approaches to determine optimal dose improved with trial size, particularly for studies with at least 30 trial participants, and that, generally, using a peaking or a weighted model-averaging-based dose-efficacy relationship was most effective in finding optimal dose. Most methods of trial dose selection were similarly effective for the purpose of determining optimal dose; however, including modelling to adapt doses during a trial may lead to more trial participants receiving a more optimal dose. Clinical trial dosing around the predicted optimal dose, rather than only at the predicted optimal dose, may improve final dose selection. This work suggests modelling can be used effectively for vaccine dose finding, prompting potential practical applications of these methods in accelerating effective vaccine development and saving lives.

Efficacy and safety of a universal influenza A vaccine (MVA-NP+M1) in adults when given after seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine immunisation (FLU009): a phase 2b, randomised, double-blind trial.

BACKGROUND: In animal, epidemiological, and human challenge studies, a pre-existing T-cell response to internal proteins of influenza A has been associated with improved virological and disease outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess whether inducing additional responses to conserved CD4 and CD8 T-cell antigens provides added benefit to standard influenza vaccination. METHODS: We designed a phase 2b, randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial of a recombinant viral-vectored vaccine (modified vaccinia Ankara expressing virus nucleoprotein and matrix protein 1; MVA-NP+M1), which has been shown to induce both CD4 and CD8 T cells, at eight outpatient clinical trial sites in Australia over two consecutive influenza seasons. We recruited non-immunosuppressed adults (≥18 years) who had received the 2019 quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) vaccine within 28 days before study enrolment and randomisation (day 0). Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) according to a computer-generated random sequence to receive one dose of 1·5 × 108 plaque-forming units of MVA-NP+M1 or saline (placebo) intramuscularly. Randomisation was stratified by age (<65 years or ≥65 years). The patients and trial assessors were masked to treatment assignment. During the subsequent influenza seasons, participants with symptoms related to respiratory illness or influenza-like illness were to attend the clinic within 72 h of symptom onset for two nasal swabs for influenza testing by quantitative RT-PCR. The primary endpoint was the incidence rate of laboratory-confirmed influenza in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. Safety (solicited adverse events within 7 days and unsolicited adverse events within 28 days after study vaccination, and serious adverse events for the study duration) was assessed in all randomly assigned participants who received at least one vaccination (according to the treatment received). The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03880474. FINDINGS: Between April 2 and June 14, 2019, 2152 adults were randomly allocated and received MVA-NP+M1 (n=1077) or placebo (n=1075), comprising the efficacy (ITT) analysis set. Participants were followed up throughout the 2019 Australia influenza season (May 1 to Oct 15, 2019). 419 (19·5%) of 2152 participants were aged 65 years or older. The incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza did not differ between the MVA-NP+M1 group (35 of 1077 participants; 3·25% [95% CI 2·31-4·44]) and the placebo group (23 of 1075; 2·14% [1·39-3·14]; Fisher's exact p=0·14). 23 severe solicited local injection site reactions were reported in 13 (0·6%) of 2152 participants, 22 of which were reported in the MVA-NP + M1 group (in 12 [1·1%] participants). 100 severe systemic events were reported in 45 (4·2%) MVA-NP + M1 recipients, and 20 were reported in 14 (1·3%) placebo recipients. Three unsolicited grade 3 events in three participants (two headache and one nausea, all in the MVA-NP+M1 group) were deemed vaccine related. 21 serious adverse events were reported in 18 (1·7%) of 1077 participants in the MVA-NP+M1 group and 25 serious adverse events were reported in 22 (2·0%) of 1075 participants in the placebo group; none were considered vaccine related. The trial was stopped after one season for futility on the recommendation of the data monitoring committee. INTERPRETATION: MVA-NP+M1 was well tolerated with no vaccine-associated serious adverse events. A vaccine designed to induce moderate T-cell responses to the cross-reactive internal proteins of influenza A did not lead to improved incidence when given within 28 days after standard QIV immunisation. A greater magnitude of T-cell response with a different vaccine or regimen, or localisation in the lungs via alternative delivery, such as intranasal or aerosol, might be successful and require further investigation. FUNDING: Vaccitech.

Efficacy and Safety of a Modified Vaccinia Ankara-NP+M1 Vaccine Combined with QIV in People Aged 65 and Older: A Randomised Controlled Clinical Trial (INVICTUS).

BACKGROUND: Pre-existing T cell responses to influenza have been correlated with improved clinical outcomes in natural history and human challenge studies. We aimed to determine the efficacy, safety and immunogenicity of a T-cell directed vaccine in older people. METHODS: This was a multicentre, participant- and safety assessor-blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled trial of the co-administration of Modified Vaccinia Ankara encoding nucleoprotein and matrix protein 1 (MVA-NP+M1) and annual influenza vaccine in participants ≥ 65. The primary outcome was the number of days with moderate or severe influenza-like symptoms (ILS) during the influenza season. RESULTS: 846 of a planned 2030 participants were recruited in the UK prior to, and throughout, the 2017/18 flu season. There was no evidence of a difference in the reported rates of days of moderate or severe ILS during influenza-like illness episodes (unadjusted OR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.54-1.69; adjusted OR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.51-1.65). The trial was stopped after one season due to a change in the recommended annual flu vaccine, for which safety of the new combination had not been established. More participants in the MVA-NP+M1 group had transient moderate or severe pain, redness, and systemic responses in the first seven days. CONCLUSION: The MVA-NP+M1 vaccine is well tolerated in those aged 65 years and over. Larger trials would be needed to determine potential efficacy.

Optimising Vaccine Dose in Inoculation against SARS-CoV-2, a Multi-Factor Optimisation Modelling Study to Maximise Vaccine Safety and Efficacy.

Developing a vaccine against the global pandemic SARS-CoV-2 is a critical area of active research. Modelling can be used to identify optimal vaccine dosing; maximising vaccine efficacy and safety and minimising cost. We calibrated statistical models to published dose-dependent seroconversion and adverse event data of a recombinant adenovirus type-5 (Ad5) SARS-CoV-2 vaccine given at doses 5.0 × 1010, 1.0 × 1011 and 1.5 × 1011 viral particles. We estimated the optimal dose for three objectives, finding: (A) the minimum dose that may induce herd immunity, (B) the dose that maximises immunogenicity and safety and (C) the dose that maximises immunogenicity and safety whilst minimising cost. Results suggest optimal dose [95% confidence interval] in viral particles per person was (A) 1.3 × 1011 [0.8-7.9 × 1011], (B) 1.5 × 1011 [0.3-5.0 × 1011] and (C) 1.1 × 1011 [0.2-1.5 × 1011]. Optimal dose exceeded 5.0 × 1010 viral particles only if the cost of delivery exceeded £0.65 or cost per 1011 viral particles was less than £6.23. Optimal dose may differ depending on the objectives of developers and policy-makers, but further research is required to improve the accuracy of optimal-dose estimates.

Evaluation of heterologous prime-boost vaccination strategies using chimpanzee adenovirus and modified vaccinia virus for TB subunit vaccination in rhesus macaques.

Tuberculosis (TB) still is the principal cause of death from infectious disease and improved vaccination strategies are required to reduce the disease burden and break TB transmission. Here, we investigated different routes of administration of vectored subunit vaccines based on chimpanzee-derived adenovirus serotype-3 (ChAd3) for homologous prime-boosting and modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) for heterologous boosting with both vaccine vectors expressing the same antigens from Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Ag85B, ESAT6, Rv2626, Rv1733, RpfD). Prime-boost strategies were evaluated for immunogenicity and protective efficacy in highly susceptible rhesus macaques. A fully parenteral administration regimen was compared to exclusive respiratory mucosal administration, while parenteral ChAd3-5Ag prime-boosting and mucosal MVA-5Ag boosting were applied as a push-and-pull strategy from the periphery to the lung. Immune analyses corroborated compartmentalized responses induced by parenteral versus mucosal vaccination. Despite eliciting TB-specific immune responses, none of the investigational regimes conferred a protective effect by standard readouts of TB compared to non-vaccinated controls, while lack of protection by BCG underpinned the stringency of this non-human primate test modality. Yet, TB manifestation after full parenteral vaccination was significantly less compared to exclusive mucosal vaccination.

Cytomegalovirus infection is a risk factor for tuberculosis disease in infants.

Immune activation is associated with increased risk of tuberculosis (TB) disease in infants. We performed a case-control analysis to identify drivers of immune activation and disease risk. Among 49 infants who developed TB disease over the first 2 years of life, and 129 healthy matched controls, we found the cytomegalovirus-stimulated (CMV-stimulated) IFN-γ response to be associated with CD8+ T cell activation (Spearman's rho, P = 6 × 10-8). A CMV-specific IFN-γ response was also associated with increased risk of developing TB disease (conditional logistic regression; P = 0.043; OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.02-4.83) and shorter time to TB diagnosis (Log Rank Mantel-Cox, P = 0.037). CMV+ infants who developed TB disease had lower expression of NK cell-associated gene signatures and a lower frequency of CD3-CD4-CD8- lymphocytes. We identified transcriptional signatures predictive of TB disease risk among CMV ELISpot-positive (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC], 0.98, accuracy, 92.57%) and -negative (AUROC, 0.9; accuracy, 79.3%) infants; the CMV- signature was validated in an independent infant study (AUROC, 0.71; accuracy, 63.9%). A 16-gene signature that previously identified adolescents at risk of developing TB disease did not accurately classify case and control infants in this study. Understanding the microbial drivers of T cell activation, such as CMV, could guide new strategies for prevention of TB disease in infants.

Final Analysis of a Trial of M72/AS01E Vaccine to Prevent Tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Results of an earlier analysis of a trial of the M72/AS01E candidate vaccine against Mycobacterium tuberculosis showed that in infected adults, the vaccine provided 54.0% protection against active pulmonary tuberculosis disease, without evident safety concerns. We now report the results of the 3-year final analysis of efficacy, safety, and immunogenicity. METHODS: From August 2014 through November 2015, we enrolled adults 18 to 50 years of age with M. tuberculosis infection (defined by positive results on interferon-γ release assay) without evidence of active tuberculosis disease at centers in Kenya, South Africa, and Zambia. Participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive two doses of either M72/AS01E or placebo, administered 1 month apart. The primary objective was to evaluate the efficacy of M72/AS01E to prevent active pulmonary tuberculosis disease according to the first case definition (bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis not associated with human immunodeficiency virus infection). Participants were followed for 3 years after the second dose. Participants with clinical suspicion of tuberculosis provided sputum samples for polymerase-chain-reaction assay, mycobacterial culture, or both. Humoral and cell-mediated immune responses were evaluated until month 36 in a subgroup of 300 participants. Safety was assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of M72/AS01E or placebo. RESULTS: A total of 3575 participants underwent randomization, of whom 3573 received at least one dose of M72/AS01E or placebo, and 3330 received both planned doses. Among the 3289 participants in the according-to-protocol efficacy cohort, 13 of the 1626 participants in the M72/AS01E group, as compared with 26 of the 1663 participants in the placebo group, had cases of tuberculosis that met the first case definition (incidence, 0.3 vs. 0.6 cases per 100 person-years). The vaccine efficacy at month 36 was 49.7% (90% confidence interval [CI], 12.1 to 71.2; 95% CI, 2.1 to 74.2). Among participants in the M72/AS01E group, the concentrations of M72-specific antibodies and the frequencies of M72-specific CD4+ T cells increased after the first dose and were sustained throughout the follow-up period. Serious adverse events, potential immune-mediated diseases, and deaths occurred with similar frequencies in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults infected with M. tuberculosis, vaccination with M72/AS01E elicited an immune response and provided protection against progression to pulmonary tuberculosis disease for at least 3 years. (Funded by GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals and Aeras; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01755598.).

Safety and Immunogenicity of the Heterosubtypic Influenza A Vaccine MVA-NP+M1 Manufactured on the AGE1.CR.pIX Avian Cell Line.

Seasonal influenza infections have a significant global impact leading to increased health and economic burden. The efficacy of currently available seasonal influenza vaccines targeting polymorphic surface antigens has historically been suboptimal. Cellular immune responses against highly conserved Influenza A virus antigens, such as nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix protein-1 (M1), have previously been shown to be associated with protection from disease, whilst viral-vectored vaccines are an effective strategy to boost cell-mediated immunity. We have previously demonstrated that MVA encoding NP and M1 can induce potent and persistent T cell responses against influenza. In this Phase I study, we evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of MVA-NP+M1, which was newly manufactured on an immortalized cell line, in six healthy adult participants. The vaccine was well-tolerated with only mild to moderate adverse events that resolved spontaneously and were comparable to previous studies with the same vaccine manufactured in chick embryo fibroblasts. A significant increase in vaccine-specific T cell responses was detected seven days after immunization and was directed against both antigens in the vector insert. This small Phase I study supports progression of this vaccine to a Phase IIb study to assess immunogenicity and additional protective efficacy in older adults receiving licensed seasonal influenza vaccines.

Dose finding for new vaccines: The role for immunostimulation/immunodynamic modelling.

Current methods to optimize vaccine dose are purely empirically based, whereas in the drug development field, dosing determinations use far more advanced quantitative methodology to accelerate decision-making. Applying these established methods in the field of vaccine development may reduce the currently large clinical trial sample sizes, long time frames, high costs, and ultimately have a better potential to save lives. We propose the field of immunostimulation/immunodynamic (IS/ID) modelling, which aims to translate mathematical frameworks used for drug dosing towards optimizing vaccine dose decision-making. Analogous to Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling, the mathematical description of drug distribution (PK) and effect (PD) in host, IS/ID modelling approaches apply mathematical models to describe the underlying mechanisms by which the immune response is stimulated by vaccination (IS) and the resulting measured immune response dynamics (ID). To move IS/ID modelling forward, existing datasets and further data on vaccine allometry and dose-dependent dynamics need to be generated and collate, requiring a collaborative environment with input from academia, industry, regulators, governmental and non-governmental agencies to share modelling expertise, and connect modellers to vaccine data.

Phase 2b Controlled Trial of M72/AS01E Vaccine to Prevent Tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: A vaccine to interrupt the transmission of tuberculosis is needed. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2b trial of the M72/AS01E tuberculosis vaccine in Kenya, South Africa, and Zambia. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative adults 18 to 50 years of age with latent M. tuberculosis infection (by interferon-γ release assay) were randomly assigned (in a 1:1 ratio) to receive two doses of either M72/AS01E or placebo intramuscularly 1 month apart. Most participants had previously received the bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccine. We assessed the safety of M72/AS01E and its efficacy against progression to bacteriologically confirmed active pulmonary tuberculosis disease. Clinical suspicion of tuberculosis was confirmed with sputum by means of a polymerase-chain-reaction test, mycobacterial culture, or both. RESULTS: We report the primary analysis (conducted after a mean of 2.3 years of follow-up) of the ongoing trial. A total of 1786 participants received M72/AS01E and 1787 received placebo, and 1623 and 1660 participants in the respective groups were included in the according-to-protocol efficacy cohort. A total of 10 participants in the M72/AS01E group met the primary case definition (bacteriologically confirmed active pulmonary tuberculosis, with confirmation before treatment), as compared with 22 participants in the placebo group (incidence, 0.3 cases vs. 0.6 cases per 100 person-years). The vaccine efficacy was 54.0% (90% confidence interval [CI], 13.9 to 75.4; 95% CI, 2.9 to 78.2; P=0.04). Results for the total vaccinated efficacy cohort were similar (vaccine efficacy, 57.0%; 90% CI, 19.9 to 76.9; 95% CI, 9.7 to 79.5; P=0.03). There were more unsolicited reports of adverse events in the M72/AS01E group (67.4%) than in the placebo group (45.4%) within 30 days after injection, with the difference attributed mainly to injection-site reactions and influenza-like symptoms. Serious adverse events, potential immune-mediated diseases, and deaths occurred with similar frequencies in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: M72/AS01E provided 54.0% protection for M. tuberculosis-infected adults against active pulmonary tuberculosis disease, without evident safety concerns. (Funded by GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals and Aeras; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01755598 .).

Using vaccine Immunostimulation/Immunodynamic modelling methods to inform vaccine dose decision-making.

Unlike drug dose optimisation, mathematical modelling has not been applied to vaccine dose finding. We applied a novel Immunostimulation/Immunodynamic mathematical modelling framework to translate multi-dose TB vaccine immune responses from mice, to predict most immunogenic dose in humans. Data were previously collected on IFN-γ secreting CD4+ T cells over time for novel TB vaccines H56 and H1 adjuvanted with IC31 in mice (1 dose groups (0.1-1.5 and 15 µg H56 + IC31), 45 mice) and humans (1 dose (50 µg H56/H1 + IC31), 18 humans). A two-compartment mathematical model, describing the dynamics of the post-vaccination IFN-γ T cell response, was fitted to mouse and human data, separately, using nonlinear mixed effects methods. We used these fitted models and a vaccine dose allometric scaling assumption, to predict the most immunogenic human dose. Based on the changes in model parameters by mouse H56 + IC31 dose and by varying the H56 dose allometric scaling factor between mouse and humans, we established that, at a late time point (224 days) doses of 0.8-8 µg H56 + IC31 in humans may be the most immunogenic. A 0.8-8 µg of H-series TB vaccines in humans, may be as, or more, immunogenic, as larger doses. The Immunostimulation/Immunodynamic mathematical modelling framework is a novel, and potentially revolutionary tool, to predict most immunogenic vaccine doses, and accelerate vaccine development.

Adjuvant-Associated Peripheral Blood mRNA Profiles and Kinetics Induced by the Adjuvanted Recombinant Protein Candidate Tuberculosis Vaccine M72/AS01 in Bacillus Calmette-Guérin-Vaccinated Adults.

Systems biology has the potential to identify gene signatures associated with vaccine immunogenicity and protective efficacy. The main objective of this study was to identify optimal postvaccination time points for evaluating peripheral blood RNA expression profiles in relation to vaccine immunogenicity and potential efficacy in recipients of the candidate tuberculosis vaccine M72/AS01. In this phase II open-label study (NCT01669096; https://clinicaltrials.gov/), healthy Bacillus Calmette-Guérin-primed, HIV-negative adults were administered two doses (30 days apart) of M72/AS01. Twenty subjects completed the study and 18 subjects received two doses. Blood samples were collected pre-dose 1, pre-dose 2, and 1, 7, 10, 14, 17, and 30 days post-dose 2. RNA expression in whole blood (WB) and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) was quantified using microarray technology. Serum interferon-gamma responses and M72-specific CD4+ T cell responses to vaccination, and the observed safety profile were similar to previous trials. Two different approaches were utilized to analyze the RNA expression data. First, a kinetic analysis of RNA expression changes using blood transcription modules revealed early (1 day post-dose 2) activation of several pathways related to innate immune activation, both in WB and PBMC. Second, using a previously identified gene signature as a classifier, optimal postvaccination time points were identified. Since M72/AS01 efficacy remains to be established, a PBMC-derived gene signature associated with the protective efficacy of a similarly adjuvanted candidate malaria vaccine was used as a proxy for this purpose. This approach was based on the assumption that the AS01 adjuvant used in both studies could induce shared innate immune pathways. Subjects were classified as gene signature positive (GS+) or gene signature negative (GS-). Assignments of subjects to GS+ or GS- groups were confirmed by significant differences in RNA expression of the gene signature genes in PBMCs at 14 days post-dose 2 relative to prevaccination and in WB samples at 7, 10, 14, and 17 days post-dose 2 relative to prevaccination. Hence, in comparison with a prevaccination, 7, 10, 14, and 17 days postvaccination appeared to be suitable time points for identifying potentially clinically relevant transcriptome responses to M72/AS01 in WB samples.

Tuberculosis vaccines: Opportunities and challenges.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a serious disease around the world. Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is the only TB vaccine licensed for use in human beings, and is effective in protecting infants and children against severe miliary and meningeal TB. However, BCG's protective efficacy is variable in adults. Novel TB vaccine candidates being developed include whole-cell vaccines (recombinant BCG (rBCG), attenuated Mycobacterium tuberculosis, killed M. tuberculosis or Mycobacterium vaccae), adjuvanted protein subunit vaccines, viral vector-delivered subunit vaccines, plasmid DNA vaccines, RNA-based vaccines etc. At least 12 novel TB vaccine candidates are now in clinical trials, including killed M. vaccae, rBCG ΔureC::hly, adjuvanted fusion proteins M72 and H56 and viral vectored MVA85A. Unfortunately, in TB, there are no correlates of vaccine-induced protection, although cell-mediated immune responses such as interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) production are widely used to assess vaccine's immunogenicity. Recent studies suggested that central memory T cells and local secreted IgA correlated with protection against TB disease. Clinical TB vaccine efficacy trials should invest in identifying correlates of protection, and evaluate new TB biomarkers emerging from human and animal studies. Accumulating new knowledge on M. tuberculosis antigens and immune profiles correlating with protection or disease risk will be of great help in designing next generation of TB vaccines.

Prevention of tuberculosis in rhesus macaques by a cytomegalovirus-based vaccine.

Despite widespread use of the bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine, tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of global mortality from a single infectious agent (Mycobacterium tuberculosis or Mtb). Here, over two independent Mtb challenge studies, we demonstrate that subcutaneous vaccination of rhesus macaques (RMs) with rhesus cytomegalovirus vectors encoding Mtb antigen inserts (hereafter referred to as RhCMV/TB)-which elicit and maintain highly effector-differentiated, circulating and tissue-resident Mtb-specific CD4+ and CD8+ memory T cell responses-can reduce the overall (pulmonary and extrapulmonary) extent of Mtb infection and disease by 68%, as compared to that in unvaccinated controls, after intrabronchial challenge with the Erdman strain of Mtb at ∼1 year after the first vaccination. Fourteen of 34 RhCMV/TB-vaccinated RMs (41%) across both studies showed no TB disease by computed tomography scans or at necropsy after challenge (as compared to 0 of 17 unvaccinated controls), and ten of these RMs were Mtb-culture-negative for all tissues, an exceptional long-term vaccine effect in the RM challenge model with the Erdman strain of Mtb. These results suggest that complete vaccine-mediated immune control of highly pathogenic Mtb is possible if immune effector responses can intercept Mtb infection at its earliest stages.

Uptake of risk-reducing surgery in BRCA gene carriers in Wales, UK.

Women who inherit a mutated copy of the BRCA gene have a higher lifetime risk of developing breast cancer. No large epidemiological studies exist looking at BRCA mutation carriers in UK populations. All patients with BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation identified between 1995 and 2015 were included. Individuals were identified from a prospectively gathered data base. Genetics case-notes were obtained and retrospective analysis performed. 581 female BRCA mutation carriers were identified with a median age of 34 (18-81) at the time of testing. Of the 301 women who underwent diagnostic testing (symptomatic) 246 had been diagnosed with breast cancer, 89 with ovarian cancer and 37 had both at time of testing. Median age at diagnostic test was 51 (25-81). 33% of women underwent risk-reducing mastectomies (RRM); median age at surgery 45. This compares with 37% of women in this diagnostic group who underwent Risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oopherectomies (RRBSO) at a median age of 46. Two hundred and eighty women underwent predictive testing (family history, asymptomatic), median age 36 (18-81). 34% of women in this predictive group underwent RRM, median age 37. There was a 29% uptake of RRBSO (median age 44 years). Fifteen women (5%) developed breast cancer after being tested; none of these had undergone RRS. This unique study of all BRCA mutation carriers in Wales shows considerable variation in uptake of RRS. The decision to undergo RRS is complex and involves a number of factors, including a woman's age and life stage. As BRCA testing becomes more frequent and more gene mutation carriers are identified there will be significant implications for service allocation, screening demands, and provision of risk-reducing surgery for this high-risk patient group.

Using Data from Macaques To Predict Gamma Interferon Responses after Mycobacterium bovis BCG Vaccination in Humans: a Proof-of-Concept Study of Immunostimulation/Immunodynamic Modeling Methods.

Macaques play a central role in the development of human tuberculosis (TB) vaccines. Immune and challenge responses differ across macaque and human subpopulations. We used novel immunostimulation/immunodynamic modeling methods in a proof-of-concept study to determine which macaque subpopulations best predicted immune responses in different human subpopulations. Data on gamma interferon (IFN-γ)-secreting CD4+ T cells over time after recent Mycobacterium bovis BCG vaccination were available for 55 humans and 81 macaques. Human population covariates were baseline BCG vaccination status, time since BCG vaccination, gender, and the monocyte/lymphocyte cell count ratio. The macaque population covariate was the colony of origin. A two-compartment mathematical model describing the dynamics of the IFN-γ T cell response after BCG vaccination was calibrated to these data using nonlinear mixed-effects methods. The model was calibrated to macaque and human data separately. The association between subpopulations and the BCG immune response in each species was assessed. The macaque subpopulations that best predicted immune responses in different human subpopulations were identified using Bayesian information criteria. We found that the macaque colony and the human baseline BCG status were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with the BCG-induced immune response. For humans who were BCG naïve at baseline, Indonesian cynomolgus macaques and Indian rhesus macaques best predicted the immune response. For humans who had already been BCG vaccinated at baseline, Mauritian cynomolgus macaques best predicted the immune response. This work suggests that the immune responses of different human populations may be best modeled by different macaque colonies, and it demonstrates the potential utility of immunostimulation/immunodynamic modeling to accelerate TB vaccine development.

The TB vaccine H56+IC31 dose-response curve is peaked not saturating: Data generation for new mathematical modelling methods to inform vaccine dose decisions.

INTRODUCTION: In vaccine development, dose-response curves are commonly assumed to be saturating. Evidence from tuberculosis (TB) vaccine, H56+IC31 shows this may be incorrect. Mathematical modelling techniques may be useful in efficiently identifying the most immunogenic dose, but model calibration requires longitudinal data across multiple doses and time points. AIMS: We aimed to (i) generate longitudinal response data in mice for a wide range of H56+IC31 doses for use in future mathematical modelling and (ii) test whether a 'saturating' or 'peaked' dose-response curve, better fit the empirical data. METHODS: We measured IFN-γ secretion using an ELISPOT assay in the splenocytes of mice who had received doses of 0, 0.1, 0.5, 1, 5 or 15µg H56+IC31. Mice were vaccinated twice (at day 0 and 15) and responses measured for each dose at 8 time points over a 56-day period following first vaccination. Summary measures Area Under the Curve (AUC), peak and day 56 responses were compared between dose groups. Corrected Akaike Information Criteria was used to test which dose-response curve best fitted empirical data, at different time ranges. RESULTS: (i) All summary measures for dose groups 0.1 and 0.5µg were higher than the control group (p<0.05). The AUC was higher for 0.1 than 15µg dose. (ii) There was strong evidence that the dose-response curve was peaked for all time ranges, and the best dose is likely to be lower than previous empirical experiments have evaluated. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that the highest, safe dose may not always optimal in terms of immunogenicity, as the dose-response curve may not saturate. Detailed longitudinal dose range data for TB vaccine H56+IC31 reveals response dynamics in mice that should now be used to identify optimal doses for humans using clinical data, using new data collection and mathematical modelling.

Tuberculosis Susceptibility and Vaccine Protection Are Independently Controlled by Host Genotype.

UNLABELLED: The outcome of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and the immunological response to the bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine are highly variable in humans. Deciphering the relative importance of host genetics, environment, and vaccine preparation for the efficacy of BCG has proven difficult in natural populations. We developed a model system that captures the breadth of immunological responses observed in outbred individual mice, which can be used to understand the contribution of host genetics to vaccine efficacy. This system employs a panel of highly diverse inbred mouse strains, consisting of the founders and recombinant progeny of the "Collaborative Cross" project. Unlike natural populations, the structure of this panel allows the serial evaluation of genetically identical individuals and the quantification of genotype-specific effects of interventions such as vaccination. When analyzed in the aggregate, our panel resembled natural populations in several important respects: the animals displayed a broad range of susceptibility to M. tuberculosis, differed in their immunological responses to infection, and were not durably protected by BCG vaccination. However, when analyzed at the genotype level, we found that these phenotypic differences were heritable. M. tuberculosis susceptibility varied between lines, from extreme sensitivity to progressive M. tuberculosis clearance. Similarly, only a minority of the genotypes was protected by vaccination. The efficacy of BCG was genetically separable from susceptibility to M. tuberculosis, and the lack of efficacy in the aggregate analysis was driven by nonresponsive lines that mounted a qualitatively distinct response to infection. These observations support an important role for host genetic diversity in determining BCG efficacy and provide a new resource to rationally develop more broadly efficacious vaccines. IMPORTANCE: Tuberculosis (TB) remains an urgent global health crisis, and the efficacy of the currently used TB vaccine, M. bovis BCG, is highly variable. The design of more broadly efficacious vaccines depends on understanding the factors that limit the protection imparted by BCG. While these complex factors are difficult to disentangle in natural populations, we used a model population of mice to understand the role of host genetic composition in BCG efficacy. We found that the ability of BCG to protect mice with different genotypes was remarkably variable. The efficacy of BCG did not depend on the intrinsic susceptibility of the animal but, instead, correlated with qualitative differences in the immune responses to the pathogen. These studies suggest that host genetic polymorphism is a critical determinant of vaccine efficacy and provide a model system to develop interventions that will be useful in genetically diverse populations.